I'm mostly a #5 retail investor. That decision was based on a fair bit of research for the area I now live in.
As for Bitcoins, not interested. Not a huge fan of anything where the most important strategy is not being holding the bag when the music stops.
I do have physical stocks of a particular precious metal (not gold) which are for a) barter and b) if things get really weird. I think of it as an insurance policy.
No bitcoin here either. I’ve never invested in anything that requires the “greater fool” theory.
I have put a small amount of dough into an ETF that shorts bitcoin— just waiting until all the fools run out. I guess that means I’ve invested in something using the “lesser fool” theory. (I’m upside down on it so far— maybe I’m the fool.)
One of the things that worries me about bitcoin is that not only is it a fiat currency, but your security in the market is based on an encrypted account. If you lose the encryption, well, too bad for you, but worse yet, our government has the ability to crack that encryption - and would be trivial for them to do it.
So what happens when they decide to?
Or some 'rogue element' at that facility decides to?
There's also the lingering threat of "Satoshi." All hell will break lose if those wallets start moving or someone cracks into one.
As for me... I made a shit-ton of money when Nissan looked like it was going to go bankrupt a few decades ago. I knew enough about the Japanese.... their honor would never let a car company literally named after their country fail. Sure enough, the government just gave them money.
I subscribe to the Warren Buffet idea of limiting yourself to about 20 plays in your life. That way it forced you to wait to get it right and pass on things that aren't perfect.
what's the difference between a dollar backed by nothing and a bitcoin backed by nothing? Not only that, it's worse than a commodity like gold, since it is not tangible? Also, if the power goes out or systems are shut down, how do you access your bitcoin?
Coming here for investment advice makes perfect sense given that the proprietor drives a Lexus. Hoping retirement planning is a large part of the next First Principles.
for what you will have dumped into the signature "Don't give a shit" college hand-me-down car of 2015, you could have bought a REAL neon (SRT4) and made it decent to look at and nicely driveable. still living, still learning!
I toured the Morgan factory yesterday; what a trip to see honest-to-goodness craftsmen hammering metal and shaping wood to build a bespoke car. My guide confirmed you won’t lose money when investing in a Morgan, so enjoy the lack of depreciation!
If you click the link, he is effectively chastising me for calling the 911 GT3 "gay" a few years ago, a chastising I probably deserve, although in my perpetually hidebound ignorance I thought we could go back to negative uses of "gay" when "queer" became the preferred term, the same way most of the gay dudes I know use "homosexual" in a non-flattering fashion.
When I play cribbage and we discuss a great pegging round, the Gen Z players (aka kids) all giggle like they all have doorknobs up their butts. It is troubling.
"Gay" and "progressive" are both euphemisms designed to sanitize and obfuscate.
But this comment reminded me of the time I had to buy front wheel hubs for my Volvo, and the only company that made new ones was a European outfit called FAG.
Great article, the linked articles on you personal site were also outstanding. Thanks for sharing your knowledge. Also what is it like to be rich in Canada when I understand from members of the ACF community who live there, that the government spends every waking hour trying to impoverish the rich, like yourself?
Life is generally pretty good here. My kids go to public school, but the less news you read (and the more private health/golf clubs you belong to) the better. Same as anywhere in the West at present?
At the very least our government isn't any worse than that of UK, Germany, or Australia, and it's entirely plausible that at least the "flyover" parts of Canada will end up much more closely aligned with their southern neighbours in the coming decades
The "main tools" column in the retail list seems to be main risks/downsides. I couldn't expand that image enough to see before on mobile, because substack is so bad.
I find it hard to believe any success beyond simply getting the market average return in anything but category 5 at retail is anything but dumb luck. Most of the pro edges come from power, insider info, or deal access you'll never get as John Q Public.
The average reader is far better served by buy and hold index investing than anything else.
This is what I got from the article as well, after a certain amount of explanation of investor types, etc.
I think the airlines are headed back up, for whatever that's worth. They fell too much on "fear of foreign travel" or whatever happened thanks to Trump. I think aviation in general was a bit overvalued, but the airlines fell too much. Just my opinion, but also where I have some money.
I thought that the key to investing was knowing that EBITDA is all the matters since it's cashflow from operations. Even though, the investors that use it, end up causing close to 20% of all business bankruptcies in the US. Russ Hannenman was right, pre-revenue, you're a pure play. I'm sure sherman will tell me I'm wrong. Capital allocators are the most important people this country has.
For MOST people, dollar cost averaging the S&P 500 provides the best risk-adjusted returns they could ever get, and it takes essentially zero time or mental bandwidth. One could conceivably devote all of their time to investing (or “investing”) and lose out versus the effort- and thought-free S&P 500 return. It is a tremendous gift of modern capitalism that one can ride the wisdom of the broader market without having much expertise.
Pete does an excellent job of breaking down the investor subtypes.
I agree with you 100%. That post was facetious as you know. Most people have no idea what EBITDA is. FWIW I am not an EBITDA fan much like Charlie Munger. Software it doesn't matter that much.
Sure but EBITDA isn't complete revenue. To avoid taking into account the vital aspect of depreciation & interest is silly. Oh yeah, let's just ignore a giant debt amount but our earnings are high! (even though, 70% of those earnings could go to debt).
It never ceases to amuse me that you and I utilize the same investment strategy. My neighborhood cigar lounge is offering 15% off Davidoffs this week, maybe I'll have one.
Nothing else satisfies. I am chagrined to admit that I have been smoking 4-6 Davidoff cigars every day lately. Particularly as a lot of my day to day is phone calls at this point. I am smoking one right now, and I am going to light another one right after because I don’t have a call until early afternoon! 🤣
Be sure to retrohale (google it if unfamiliar) the next time you smoke one.
I would presume it is not a super high volume Davidoff store given the sale.
Which is good news! Look for an Aniversario Special R with fairly prominent / puckered veins on the wrapper and a lighter hue - good signs that it’s been sitting aging for a while. Get the Special R in the cellophane, not the tubo, which doesn’t age as rapidly given it’s sealed.
Restaurant chain that once employed me preached the importance of EBITDA in nearly every meeting and conference call I was forced to attend except the one notifying me of that morning's Chapter 7 filing and my new job status.
Options industry wisdom from the professional traders I used to work with: “It’s like picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer. You can pick up as many nickels as you want, but keep an eye on the bulldozer “
That's bonds and was with LTCM which had that problem. There's a whole business case about them. I was being facetious about my comment, but I've made quite a bit of money on options. More on commodities and currencies, but they just need to be quick positions.
I think that buried in the book When Genius Failed is the reason that one particular New-York-based banking firm went under during the 2007-2009 Follies.
They were the only US firm that refused to help the Fed save the US banking system during the 1998 LTCM meltdown. IIRC, that was Bear Sterns.
When, ten years later, they needed help, everyone else remembered that they were the only US firm that did not pony up. Crédit Agricole also declined to help, but they were not a US firm.
Excellent guest article, thank you! I dabble in a few of the investment categories, and honing in on what I enjoy and am actually good at would probably prove more beneficial in the long run.
If you haven’t, I highly recommend visiting Lake Minnetonka in the summer. The lake is magnificent, but you definitely get a glimpse of how the other half lives.
If you do actually visit MN in the summer, there are several other lakes to be recommended that are better than Minnetonka.
you certainly can't beat the spectacle and social scene of Minnetonka in the depths of summer. But if you want peace and cleansing of the solitary sort, just about ANY lake is better.
Picking a lake is more complicated than it might appear. Many factors involved.
"Hello, Amerikan. I am Africa Prince Jonny Goldman. I would like to make you "Rich Man" if you could just to help me to move $10-Billion-uS GOLD dOLLARS...." There is only one catch...
I'm mostly a #5 retail investor. That decision was based on a fair bit of research for the area I now live in.
As for Bitcoins, not interested. Not a huge fan of anything where the most important strategy is not being holding the bag when the music stops.
I do have physical stocks of a particular precious metal (not gold) which are for a) barter and b) if things get really weird. I think of it as an insurance policy.
No bitcoin here either. I’ve never invested in anything that requires the “greater fool” theory.
I have put a small amount of dough into an ETF that shorts bitcoin— just waiting until all the fools run out. I guess that means I’ve invested in something using the “lesser fool” theory. (I’m upside down on it so far— maybe I’m the fool.)
One of the things that worries me about bitcoin is that not only is it a fiat currency, but your security in the market is based on an encrypted account. If you lose the encryption, well, too bad for you, but worse yet, our government has the ability to crack that encryption - and would be trivial for them to do it.
So what happens when they decide to?
Or some 'rogue element' at that facility decides to?
There's also the lingering threat of "Satoshi." All hell will break lose if those wallets start moving or someone cracks into one.
As for me... I made a shit-ton of money when Nissan looked like it was going to go bankrupt a few decades ago. I knew enough about the Japanese.... their honor would never let a car company literally named after their country fail. Sure enough, the government just gave them money.
I subscribe to the Warren Buffet idea of limiting yourself to about 20 plays in your life. That way it forced you to wait to get it right and pass on things that aren't perfect.
Actually bitcoin isn’t a fiat currency; the dollar is. Maybe bitcoin is a Yugo currency; similar to a Fiat, but worse.
Many things to be concerned about with bitcoin, not the least of which are the stuff you mentioned.
what's the difference between a dollar backed by nothing and a bitcoin backed by nothing? Not only that, it's worse than a commodity like gold, since it is not tangible? Also, if the power goes out or systems are shut down, how do you access your bitcoin?
It's Pretend Internet Money, existing only electronically in some server in Bangalore.
And that last word is enough to make me stay away!
I admit I don't totally understand Bitcoin.
And that ignorance is probably saving my 401k.
Coming here for investment advice makes perfect sense given that the proprietor drives a Lexus. Hoping retirement planning is a large part of the next First Principles.
The best investment advice I can give you is summed up like so:
Don't buy a 2001 Lexus ES300.
More specifically, don't buy the one you bought. Fortunately, you jumped on that hand grenade for all of us. ;-)
for what you will have dumped into the signature "Don't give a shit" college hand-me-down car of 2015, you could have bought a REAL neon (SRT4) and made it decent to look at and nicely driveable. still living, still learning!
this isn't helping me get the pistol out of my mouth, friendo
you're pointing that thing the wrong way big boy. go rob the parts counter or better yet the guy who sold it to you
Per Bill Bengen, the guy who came up with the 4% rule, after further research he’s now going with a 5% yearly withdrawal rate instead of 4%.
I'm sure his heart's in the right place but I don't think even 5 would cover the nut with a new Morgan.
I toured the Morgan factory yesterday; what a trip to see honest-to-goodness craftsmen hammering metal and shaping wood to build a bespoke car. My guide confirmed you won’t lose money when investing in a Morgan, so enjoy the lack of depreciation!
Thank God they're not offering the Supersport in the USA, I think I'd really have trouble making the payments to which I would readily commit.
Casually using gay as an insult in 2025, really?
Here at ACF, we don’t tone police, no matter how silly, egotistical, retarded, wrong, haughty, hateful, “bigoted” etc.
Whoa, we're never wrong here at ACF.
And we’re all above average.
https://i.makeagif.com/media/2-21-2024/28XTmY.gif
hell yeah brother
its making a strong comeback along with retard
“You people are retards” has a nice ring to it.
There’s a good X account called I Find Retards that you might find enjoyable.
Party like it's 1999
Game. Blouses.
If you click the link, he is effectively chastising me for calling the 911 GT3 "gay" a few years ago, a chastising I probably deserve, although in my perpetually hidebound ignorance I thought we could go back to negative uses of "gay" when "queer" became the preferred term, the same way most of the gay dudes I know use "homosexual" in a non-flattering fashion.
Pete himself is socially progressive.
I'd like to think that I'm *at least* as socially progressive as, say, Robespierre. So I guess Jack has me pegged (but not like that)
But there wouldn't be anything wrong with that!
When I play cribbage and we discuss a great pegging round, the Gen Z players (aka kids) all giggle like they all have doorknobs up their butts. It is troubling.
"doorknobs up their butts"
bro what
"Gay" and "progressive" are both euphemisms designed to sanitize and obfuscate.
But this comment reminded me of the time I had to buy front wheel hubs for my Volvo, and the only company that made new ones was a European outfit called FAG.
They've had a plant near Joplin since 1969!
https://www.schaeffler.us/us/company/history/
69, dudes!
My gay friends say “fag” when they want to denigrate a fellow gay person. I assumed that was like the gay n-word.
You didn’t see the EO?
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DFGw2ZWO-tP/?igsh=MTB5NGQ4dHg0Z3hoZw==
Great article, the linked articles on you personal site were also outstanding. Thanks for sharing your knowledge. Also what is it like to be rich in Canada when I understand from members of the ACF community who live there, that the government spends every waking hour trying to impoverish the rich, like yourself?
Life is generally pretty good here. My kids go to public school, but the less news you read (and the more private health/golf clubs you belong to) the better. Same as anywhere in the West at present?
At the very least our government isn't any worse than that of UK, Germany, or Australia, and it's entirely plausible that at least the "flyover" parts of Canada will end up much more closely aligned with their southern neighbours in the coming decades
Rudyard pretty much called it https://youtu.be/N3rgdTr71Qg?si=a54iJCxGST_0wOo2&t=164
no idea who this guy is but already liked him within two paragraphs. another banger post here
much appreciated and many thanks to jack for setting it up and pete d for laying out the groundwork
time to become almost marginally less poor
The "main tools" column in the retail list seems to be main risks/downsides. I couldn't expand that image enough to see before on mobile, because substack is so bad.
I find it hard to believe any success beyond simply getting the market average return in anything but category 5 at retail is anything but dumb luck. Most of the pro edges come from power, insider info, or deal access you'll never get as John Q Public.
The average reader is far better served by buy and hold index investing than anything else.
Just Bitcoin and Gold, eh? I guess the music is finally stopping.
That’s not what my shoe shine boy told me. He’s still bullish.
This is what I got from the article as well, after a certain amount of explanation of investor types, etc.
I think the airlines are headed back up, for whatever that's worth. They fell too much on "fear of foreign travel" or whatever happened thanks to Trump. I think aviation in general was a bit overvalued, but the airlines fell too much. Just my opinion, but also where I have some money.
Pete, thanks for contributing.
If you see this comment, do you have any publicly-shareable thoughts on the life and tragic drowning of your friend, Bitcoin legend Mircea Popescu ?
Wait, Popescu is dead? I guess I hadn't heard anything about him for a while now.
Happy to share my thoughts here:
https://contravex.com/2021/07/04/rip-mp/
https://contravex.com/2025/02/16/monarchy-revisited/
Very deep and enlightening, thanks. Now then, gold. So William Devane has been right all along?
I thought that the key to investing was knowing that EBITDA is all the matters since it's cashflow from operations. Even though, the investors that use it, end up causing close to 20% of all business bankruptcies in the US. Russ Hannenman was right, pre-revenue, you're a pure play. I'm sure sherman will tell me I'm wrong. Capital allocators are the most important people this country has.
For MOST people, dollar cost averaging the S&P 500 provides the best risk-adjusted returns they could ever get, and it takes essentially zero time or mental bandwidth. One could conceivably devote all of their time to investing (or “investing”) and lose out versus the effort- and thought-free S&P 500 return. It is a tremendous gift of modern capitalism that one can ride the wisdom of the broader market without having much expertise.
Pete does an excellent job of breaking down the investor subtypes.
From an accountants perspective, let me know how you really feel about right of use assets/liabilities. /s
I agree with you 100%. That post was facetious as you know. Most people have no idea what EBITDA is. FWIW I am not an EBITDA fan much like Charlie Munger. Software it doesn't matter that much.
If you are starting, owning, selling, etc. a business, you’d like it to be valued on revenue!
If you are buying, less so!
Sure but EBITDA isn't complete revenue. To avoid taking into account the vital aspect of depreciation & interest is silly. Oh yeah, let's just ignore a giant debt amount but our earnings are high! (even though, 70% of those earnings could go to debt).
It never ceases to amuse me that you and I utilize the same investment strategy. My neighborhood cigar lounge is offering 15% off Davidoffs this week, maybe I'll have one.
Nothing else satisfies. I am chagrined to admit that I have been smoking 4-6 Davidoff cigars every day lately. Particularly as a lot of my day to day is phone calls at this point. I am smoking one right now, and I am going to light another one right after because I don’t have a call until early afternoon! 🤣
Be sure to retrohale (google it if unfamiliar) the next time you smoke one.
I would presume it is not a super high volume Davidoff store given the sale.
Which is good news! Look for an Aniversario Special R with fairly prominent / puckered veins on the wrapper and a lighter hue - good signs that it’s been sitting aging for a while. Get the Special R in the cellophane, not the tubo, which doesn’t age as rapidly given it’s sealed.
I'll give you something with veins on the wrapper to smoke.
"investing" lol
the market fleeces a million sheep a day. just buy the fuckin ETF dawg
Restaurant chain that once employed me preached the importance of EBITDA in nearly every meeting and conference call I was forced to attend except the one notifying me of that morning's Chapter 7 filing and my new job status.
Restaurant? EBITDA? Yeah, that’s a certified “no fucking clue what we’re doing” moment
I just write naked calls, is that bad?
Options industry wisdom from the professional traders I used to work with: “It’s like picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer. You can pick up as many nickels as you want, but keep an eye on the bulldozer “
That's bonds and was with LTCM which had that problem. There's a whole business case about them. I was being facetious about my comment, but I've made quite a bit of money on options. More on commodities and currencies, but they just need to be quick positions.
I highly recommend the book - When Genius Failed - to everyone.
Amen...
I think that buried in the book When Genius Failed is the reason that one particular New-York-based banking firm went under during the 2007-2009 Follies.
They were the only US firm that refused to help the Fed save the US banking system during the 1998 LTCM meltdown. IIRC, that was Bear Sterns.
When, ten years later, they needed help, everyone else remembered that they were the only US firm that did not pony up. Crédit Agricole also declined to help, but they were not a US firm.
Your comment made me laugh, thanks!
I was in the options business for decades and also worked on the Chicago options trading floor in its heyday.
My investing advice is that if you eat at least two large bacon cheeseburgers a week, you probably don’t need to worry about investing.
I read somewhere recently that eating two cheeseburgers is healthier than a cheeseburger and fries, sounded to me like a great strategy.
I’m not a fry guy but here in the Midwest we have cheese curds and those will definitely be a line item on my autopsy report.
Poutine for the win. Fortunately the plate I had last week hadn't been affected by a Canadian tariff.
from personal experience the curds in quebec taste and feel better than ones elsewhere
i presume this is becuase of the specific moisture and fat content of the curd which is sometimes listed on the bag
😋😋
The one where the coroner reads it, does a double take and says, "Jesus!" ?
No bacon, no sale.
Excellent guest article, thank you! I dabble in a few of the investment categories, and honing in on what I enjoy and am actually good at would probably prove more beneficial in the long run.
If you haven’t, I highly recommend visiting Lake Minnetonka in the summer. The lake is magnificent, but you definitely get a glimpse of how the other half lives.
If you do actually visit MN in the summer, there are several other lakes to be recommended that are better than Minnetonka.
you certainly can't beat the spectacle and social scene of Minnetonka in the depths of summer. But if you want peace and cleansing of the solitary sort, just about ANY lake is better.
Picking a lake is more complicated than it might appear. Many factors involved.
It was the 19-year-old Apollonia who made the lake great, rather than the other way 'round!
Which category does Loan Sharking fall into? 2.5?
By hard assets, do we mean over the road tractor trailer equipment?
If so, I'm an investor!
"Hello, Amerikan. I am Africa Prince Jonny Goldman. I would like to make you "Rich Man" if you could just to help me to move $10-Billion-uS GOLD dOLLARS...." There is only one catch...
1 BTC = $95,000 USD
1 oz Gold = $3,300 USD
(as of publishing date, just gotta leave this here because in 2030 few will believe what laid within grasp in 2025)